4 Things to Know About the Hot Hand Fallacy

If you are new to gambling, there is this so-called hot hand fallacy that may cause you to lose everything you have. If it is your first time hearing these words, you should know what it is to identify it when it creeps into you.

What Do You Need to Know About the Hot Hand Fallacy

Hot Hand Fallacy

  1. What is the hot hand phenomenon?

To know the other details about this fallacy, you should know first what it is. The hot hand fallacy or the hot hand phenomenon is an irrational belief that many gamblers might experience, especially the new ones.

This belief arises when the gamblers win or lose several times in a row. The winning streak means ‘hot,’ and the losing streak means ‘cold.’ When you experience the winning or losing streak, you will have this irrational belief that you will also win or lose in your next bet.

  1. The basis of the hot hand phenomenon is the probability

There is no hard or logical evidence that you will win or lose on your next bet. Its basis is only probability.

You won a few times in the past. You believe that it is probable that you will also succeed in your next game. Same as you were in a losing streak previously, that is why you think that you will also lose on your next bet.

Several researchers, like Tversky, Golovich, and Vallone, found out that no evidence supports the existence or truthfulness of the hot hand phenomenon. However, in the experiment they conducted, they proved that many people believed this fallacy.

In their experiment, they asked the NCAA players to predict the results of their free throw, if it is going to miss or sink. They also asked the observers to predict the results. The researchers found out that the observers and the players used the fallacy to predict if the results of the free throw.

  1. The hot hand phenomenon on sports bets is also unreliable

Hot Hand Fallacy

If you think that you can use the hot hand phenomenon as a variable to predict the results in sports, you are wrong. Many casino platforms have already made lots of money because of those people who fell prey to this fallacy.

Knowing which player will win on a sport is hard to predict because of the several variables present. However, many amateur gamblers rely on the hot hand to predict who will most likely to win in the future.

  1. You can beat this belief

When you are gambling, base your decisions on logic and not on emotions. Be knowledgeable before you play. Uneducated bettors and gamblers are the ones who typically fall into believing the hot hand fallacy.

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